國務(wù)院提出“穩(wěn)增長”精神后各部委迅速落實，但考慮到目前的資源條件約束，預(yù)計政策上也難有特別大的作為，總體上體現(xiàn)溫和，對經(jīng)濟(jì)以扶而不是以刺激為主。海外還面臨希臘選舉的考驗。綜合來看，政策溫和背景下，大盤以震蕩為主，如果房地產(chǎn)放松、降息及希臘選舉順利，那么大盤還有一定的向上動力。
操作上，考慮大盤以震蕩為主，建議2400點(diǎn)以上適當(dāng)控制倉位，等待大盤選擇方向；2300點(diǎn)以下可以積極加倉。
風(fēng)險因素：政策超預(yù)期寬松(房地產(chǎn)放松或者降息等)、西班牙步希臘后塵帶來歐債問題的惡化。
□看好的板塊與機(jī)會：
(1)一些改革受益的行業(yè)：如地產(chǎn)、非銀行金融等。
(2)主題投資：在大盤震蕩背景下，各種類型的(或刺激消費(fèi)、或新增投資等)穩(wěn)增長政策有可能對相關(guān)受益?zhèn)€股帶來刺激。
□看好行業(yè)
機(jī)械行業(yè)：預(yù)期有所改善；維持“看好”評級；關(guān)注個股：中聯(lián)重科(10.48,0.00,0.00%)、海陸重工(14.29,0.00,0.00%)、張化機(jī)、鄭煤機(jī)(12.86,0.00,0.00%)、晉西車軸(14.59,0.00,0.00%)等。
電子行業(yè)：關(guān)注電子周期股的投資機(jī)會；維持“看好”評級；關(guān)注個股：聚飛光電(23.960,0.00,0.00%)、�？低�(46.58,0.00,0.00%)、欣旺達(dá)(12.420,0.00,0.00%)、安潔科技(39.38,0.00,0.00%)、鴻利光電(9.900,0.00,0.00%)、星星科技(11.670,0.00,0.00%)。
建筑行業(yè)：繼續(xù)看好精裝修建筑裝飾公司；維持“看好”(上調(diào))評級；關(guān)注個股：中國化學(xué)(6.41,0.00,0.00%)、亞廈股份(36.89,0.00,0.00%)、廣田股份(16.00,0.00,0.00%)、洪濤股份(13.55,0.00,0.00%)、達(dá)實智能、中國水電(4.47,0.00,0.00%)。中信證券(13.13,0.00,0.00%)
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